Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
